By LOIS KINDLE
lekindle@aol.com
Even though the Florida peninsula saw no hurricanes last year, experts continue to stress the importance of being ready — and knowing if, when and where to evacuate.
Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service expect a below normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. In its outlook for the 2026 season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30, NOAA projects a 55% chance of below-normal activity, a 35% chance of near-normal activity and a 10% chance of an above- normal season.
The 2026 Atlantic season is expected to be shaped by two competing factors: the late season development and strengthening of an El Niño pattern — which typically leads to fewer tropical storms and hurricanes — and slightly warmer ocean temperatures and likely weaker than average trade winds, which tend to support a more active year.
El Niño conditions may mean fewer hurricanes, but all it takes is one to create havoc. In 2018, Hurricane Michael made landfall as a Category 5 storm at Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle.
“The hurricane forecast doesn’t tell us where a hurricane will go or where it will land,” said Jennifer Hubbard, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Ruskin. “We were blessed last year with no landfall, but we always stress it only takes one.
“Even though we’ll more than likely experience a near to slightly less than normal hurricane season this year, water temperatures in the Gulf and Caribbean are four to seven degrees above normal, which provides a lot of fuel for storms and could still support strong systems.”
Over six weeks in 2004, for example, four hurricanes — Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne — struck the state despite El Niño conditions. Other examples include Andrew in 1992 and Michael in 2018, both Category 5 storms.
NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is forecasting 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, six to 10 are predicted to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Three to five of them will reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).
Even in a quieter season, hurricanes can deliver heavy rain, damaging winds, tornadoes, high surf, rip currents and storm surge.
“Although seasonal patterns can influence storm development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said Ken Graham, NOAA’s National Weather Service director. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now.”
Preparation includes making a plan and being ready to execute it, assembling a hurricane supply kit, knowing your evacuation zone, where you’ll go if told to evacuate, having several ways of receiving weather alerts and warnings, verifying your insurance coverage in advance, securing important documents in waterproof containers, strengthening your home and preparing a hurricane kit.
Residents who live near a river should be ready for the possibility of days or weeks of after-storm flooding.
For more information on hurricane preparedness, emergency shelters or evacuation and flood zones, visit https://hcfl.gov/residents/public-safety/.
